Date: Mon, 8 Jul 2002 08:12:10 -0400 (EDT)
To: Gulf2000

More on the split among radical Islamists

The Islamic Group leadership in prison recently issued a formal apology
for its past acts of terrorism against the Egyptian people, including the
assassination of Sadat, and condemned the September 11 attacks as contrary
to Islam in a long interview in the government-owned magazine, "The
Illustrated" (al-Musawwar). They denounced Bin Ladin and al-Qaida.


What appears to have happened is that the Islamic Group has undergone a
decisive schism. The six current leaders in Egypt, all in Tura
Penitentiary, direct the organization from behind prison walls. This
leadership has renounced terrorism as un-Islamic. AP reported on June 25
that Karam Zohdi, the group's leader said, "We strongly condemn the Sept
11 attacks because we understand that these attacks damage Islam and
Muslims," and AP added, "Besides apologizing to the Egyptian people
they even suggested paying some kind of compensation to the
families of those killed in their attacks." The six now speak of the
"blind Sheik," Omar Abdel Rahman (in prison in the US for his role in the
1993 events) as "the former leader of the Islamic Group." They appear to
consider Hamdi Abdel Rahman (not in prison) their chief legal guide for
Islamic law. The six released a 4-volume book, *Correction of
Misconceptions*, supporting their new thinking, last winter, but it is not
yet in any U.S. research library. I think that the literature being
produced by the new non-violent Islamic Group ought to be translated into
English and other European languages, in hopes it would have a bigger
impact among expatriate militants, many of whom do not have good Arabic.


It has been suggested by some observers that the six members of the
organization's Consultative Council in Tura may have been subjected to
severe psychological pressure by the Egyptian security apparatus, helping
to account for their about face. This charge may be true, but it is also
the case that discussions of giving up terrorism occurred among members of
the Islamic Groups outside prison in Egypt from the early 1990s, so one
cannot rule out an internal dynamic. It is widely held that the late 1997
shooting of tourists at Luxor not only turned most of the Egyptian public
decisively against the terrorist groups, but also provoked self-doubt and
rethinking within their ranks. Likewise, the embassy bombings in East
Africa the same year are thought to have been met with dismay even in
Islamist circles (most of the wounded and killed were Africans). It has
also been suggested that these statements are aimed at securing their
release from prison, and that of the estimated 12,000 Islamists still
being held in Egypt. A large release of thousands had been expected last
October, but appears to have been postponed or cancelled by the events of
September 11.


Expatriate members of the Islamic Group often still follow Sheikh Omar
Abdel Rahman and remain militant, resembling their sibling organization
al-Jihad al-Islami and, it is charged, maintaining close links to
al-Qaida.


Muhammad al-Shafi`i and `Abdah Zina reported in al-Sharq al-Awsat for July
6 on an interview conducted with Muhammad al-Islambouli, the brother of
Sadat's assassin. He is believed to reside in Iran, and is wanted in
Egypt. Al-Islambouli dismissed the Consultative Council in Tura as
unrepresentative and insisted that Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman is still the
leader of the Islamic Group. He rejected their apology and insisted that
his brother had acted righteously.


It is my vague impression that the nonviolent Tura leadership now
represents the majority of Egyptian members of the Islamic Group, who
probably number in the tens of thousands. One wonders whether they might
not ultimately be absorbed by the more mainstream Muslim Brotherhood,
which has long renounced violence and sought change through parliamentary
means. There has recently been a flurry of arrests, trials and retrials
aimed at militant Islamic Group members inside the country. One of the
founders, Islah Hashem, was arrested in Sohag, Upper Egypt (the Islamic
Group is heavily Upper Egyptian in membership).


It is worrisome, however, that Sheikh Abdel Rahman appears to retain a
great deal of prestige among radical Islamists outside Egypt.


Al-Sharq al-Awsat notes that al-Islambouli is one of 14 Islamists on
Egypt's most-wanted list, including Ayman al-Zawahiri.


Since so many Egyptian Islamists are expatriates, it would be very
interesting to know how this schism is playing out among the ones in Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan.